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Quote of the Day - When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible. - Albert Einstein
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Kaplan The Prognosticator Posts His Grades; Makes 2008 Predictions

My good friend and Laguna Beach attorney Steve Kaplan is well known for his annual predictions, and equally so for willingly posting his own grades.  Steve's at it again this year, first reviewing his prior prognostications, followed by his predictions for this new year.  

•1. Crude oil will never get below $50 a barrel in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: B. When I made this prediction crude oil was $60.85 a barrel. For a couple of days in 2007 crude oil was just under $50. Today, a barrel is almost $100.

•2.      Any disruption will send oil prices above $70 a barrel.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•3.      California housing prices will decline by more than 7% in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•4.      The Dow Jones industrial average will end the year below 12,000.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: F. The Dow Jones industrial average was 13,264 on 12/31/07.

•5.      Altria will return over 15% in 2007. (i.e., dividends plus appreciation will exceed 15%).

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A. Altria returned about 19% in 2007.

•6.      Microsoft, Intel and Pfizer will return over 10% in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A. Microsoft and Pfizer each returned about 17%. Intel returned about 24%.

•7.      Apple will release a cell phone in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•8.      Steve Jobs will be indicted in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: F.

•9.      Sony will do something stupid in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: B. Nintendo and X-Box both outsold Playstation in 2007. Blue Ray is not catching on.

•10. Fidel Castro will die in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: F. Old tyrants never die.

•11. Tom DeLay will be found not guilty.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: C. We are still waiting for the trial.

•12. The UN Security Council will impose further sanctions against Iran.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: C. More sanctions were imposed, but they are toothless.

•13. Violence in Palestine between the PLO and Hamas will increase in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•14. Violence in Iraq between Shiite and Sunni Muslims will increase in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: F. Violence decreased post-surge.

•15. Hezbollah will start a civil war in Lebanon in 2007.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: C. If Lebanon is not already in civil war, its close.

•16. There will be another terrorist attack in Europe.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.  On June 29, 2007, British police defused a massive car bomb in London's theatre district. On July 1, 2007 the same terrorist cell (which included doctors) crashed a SUV with explosives into a terminal building at the Glasgow airport. There was also rioting in France after Sarkozy's election.

•17. The EU will continue to reject Turkey.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•18. Toyota will become the world's biggest automaker.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•19. Al Gore will win an Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

•20. Martin Scorsese will win an Oscar for directing The Departed.

FOLLOW UP GRADE: A.

2008 PREDICTIONS

•1.      At the end of 2008, crude oil will be below $80 a barrel.

•2.      California housing prices will decline by more than 7% in 2008.

•3.      The Dow Jones industrial average will end 2008 below 13,000.

•4.      Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) will return over 15% in 2008. (i.e., dividends plus appreciation will exceed 15%).

•5.      At least one of the following major home builders will be bankrupt in 2008: Beazer Homes (BZH), Hovnanian (HOV) or Standard Pacific (SPF).

•6.      The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates because the U.S. is in a recession.

•7.      In 2008, Apple will release a new tablet PC that looks like an overgrown iPod Touch.

•8.      Google will be a losing bidder for the 700 megahertz spectrum that the FCC is auctioning in 2008.

•9.      In 2008, Congress will pass legislation banning steroids in professional sports.

•10. Because of Oprah, the Democratic presidential nominee will be Barack Obama.

•11. The Republican presidential nominee will not be Mike Huckabee.

•12. Tom DeLay will either be found not guilty, or the charges will be dismissed or President Bush will pardon him.

•13. President Bush will pardon Lewis "Scooter" Libby.

•14. Violence in Iraq will decrease in 2008.

•15. Violence in Palestine between the PLO and Hamas will increase in 2008.

•16. Forbes will list Vladimir Putin as the richest person in Europe.

•17. There will be another terrorist attack in Europe.

•18. A major politician in the U.S., Western Europe, the former Soviet Union or Australia will be assassinated.

•19. Daniel Day-Lewis will win the best actor Oscar for There Will Be Blood.

•20. Ellen Page will win the best actress Oscar for Juno.

Best Wishes in 2008.

Stephen L. Kaplan

Tel: (949) 715-9399

E-Mail: slkaplan@yahoo.com

Printer friendly page Permalink Email to a friend Posted by J. Craig Williams on Wednesday, January 02, 2008 at 11:41 Comments Closed (0) |
 
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